As autumn settles in across most of the United States, natural gas prices have surged to their highest point in eight months. This increase is primarily attributed to cooler weather forecasts and the sustained demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Domestic Demand

According to the Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update, demand for U.S. natural gas grew seven percent compared to last year for a total of 94.4 billion cubic feet per day.  Most of this growth can be attributed to a 24 percent growth in natural gas used for power generation and a six percent growth in LNG exports.  

After a summer that saw record-high temperatures, meteorologists are predicting a cooler-than-average winter due to the presence of an El Niño weather pattern. This weather pattern is expected to bolster the demand for natural gas, further impacting market pricing.

U.S. LNG Demand

The U.S. is expected to finish 2023 as the world’s largest exporter of LNG at an average of 11.6 billion cubic feet per day.  On October 3rd, Freeport LNG submitted a request to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for approval of the second phase of its restart process. This request follows the shutdown of the facility in June 2022 due to a fire incident. The Freeport LNG facility has the capacity to convert 2.1 billion cubic feet of gas into LNG daily, an amount sufficient to meet the energy needs of 10 million U.S. households for an entire day.

As Freeport LNG continues to reopen operations and other U.S. LNG facilities come online, U.S. LNG continues to play an essential role in global energy security. The attack on Israel by Hamas sent oil prices up three percent on fears of growing conflict in the Middle East.  

Meanwhile, in Australia, ongoing tensions between LNG producers and labor unions pose a significant threat to the world's second-largest LNG exporter. Chevron has publicly disclosed its efforts to seek assistance from the Australian government in light of workers' plans to resume strikes.  

Production & Supply

Since the start of 2023, the U.S. has seen a 26 percent decline in natural gas-directed rigs as producers try to increase market prices and combat higher labor and development costs.  The EIA notes that the natural gas spot price at Henry Hub in 2022 was $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) compared to $2.46 per MMBtu this year.  

These cuts in production are slowly chipping away at the record level of natural gas in U.S. storage after last year’s warmer-than-normal winter.  According to the EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, the U.S. has 3,445 Bcf of natural gas in storage. This level is 11 percent higher than last year and 5.3 percent higher than the five-year average.  

If you have any questions regarding the information provided in this month’s newsletter or would like to discuss your enrollment options, please contact your local WoodRiver Energy sales representative today.