This year is shaping up to be very different from 2022, with a large amount of natural gas in storage, a decline in natural gas prices, and softening of demand.  This has producers pulling back on rigs to help match production with demand.

Domestic Demand

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that demand for natural gas fell slightly from last year to an average of 90.7 billion cubic feet per day.  The sharpest decline in demand was seen in the residential and commercial sectors, with a 19 percent drop to 13.2 Bcf per day.

International Demand  

The IEA (International Energy Agency) has reported that global gas markets are slowly rebalancing but are expected to remain tight in 2023 due to reduced Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe. Due to mild weather, increased LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports, and decreased natural gas demand Europe’s storage ended the heating season at 60 percent full, despite Russia reducing its pipeline gas deliveries by 80 percent in 2022.

According to the EIA, there is a projected increase in U.S. LNG exports due to the strong global demand, with LNG continuing to replace pipeline natural gas exports from Russia to Europe. Lower LNG prices have been observed this year, primarily influenced by mild winter temperatures and higher-than-average storage levels. The return to service of the Freeport LNG export terminal, along with the upcoming commissioning of new LNG export projects by the end of 2024, provides further support for the forecasted growth in exports.

Production & Supply  

This past week, the U.S. experienced the most significant decline in natural gas rigs since February 2016. Even with this decline, natural gas production remains 31 percent over last year and 18 percent over the five-year average. The decrease was primarily driven by producers cutting back to match natural gas prices.

According to the latest weekly update from the EIA's Natural Gas Storage Dashboard, a net withdrawal of 71 Bcf resulted in a total working natural gas in underground storage of 2,141 Bcf. The current natural gas inventory in underground storage is fifteen percent higher than the five-year average and twenty-two percent higher than the previous year. The EIA also provided information on the withdrawal rates from storage, indicating that the average rate of withdrawals is twenty-three percent lower than the five-year average for the current withdrawal season. This suggests a slower pace of depletion compared to previous years.

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